As El Niño Grows Stronger, New Forecast Shows Where It Could Be Wettest This Ski Season

Another month, another update from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, which is sharing a new map that provides a broad look at the expected temperature and precipitation outcomes this coming winter.

The fresh slate of seasonal outlooks, as they’re called, was issued on September 17. They don’t look dramatically different from last month’s update but do reinforce a common theme among long-range forecasts: the say that the likeliest outcome for the southern third of the U.S. is more precipitation than usual, with warmer and in some places drier weather up north. 

For the December through January period, a green band on the map indicating precipitation odds stretches from California to Texas and all the way up into the Northeast. Here’s a look.

A “Super” El Niño Ski Season?

By now, you’ve undoubtedly heard about the so-called “Super” El Niño—basically, that means a really strong one. The ongoing El Niño is poised to reach historic strengths.

The climate phenomenon, which revolves around sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, can change how a given winter looks through “teleconnections.” For North America, El Niño can lead to a southward shift of the Pacific jet, creating an environment where there are higher odds of wetter-than-average weather across the southern U.S. 

This is an observed pattern seen in some past El Niños but does not confirm how a given winter looks—it’s best to think of El Niño as imperfectly loaded dice. We’re talking about weather, after all, which is famously hard to predict months in advance. 

“With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed,” according to the CPC.

Still, a member of the CPC told SFGate that the current El Niño was the “primary driver” of the above outlook, which looks similar to those shared by other meteorologists. 

In short, if we were gamblers—we are not, for the record—we’d put a little money down on California and parts of the Southwest being wetter than usual this winter.

What Do Other Forecasts Say?

For another straightforward winter outlook: turn to Chris Tomer or OpenSnow.

For a note of caution: check out meteorologist Luke Stone’s series of Instagram posts that hedge against the El Niño hype.

For a long-form detailed breakdown of El Niño’s potential impact on California: watch Dr. Daniel Swain’s September update.

Related: Watch: New Red Bull Footage Shows Ski Descent of Himalayan “Killer Mountain”