The Odds of a "Historic" El Niño Are Now Even Higher

Another month, another update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center that raises the odds of a “historic” El Niño event even higher. 

“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the agency wrote. “El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.”

The update follows continued buzz and headlines about ski country highlighting the prospect of a so-called “Super” El Niño—or, in other words, one that’s quite strong.

Skiers tend to clue in on the broader cycle that El Niño is part of—the El Niño Southern Oscillation—because it can impact how a given winter shakes out. The climate pattern revolves around a patch of ocean in the equatorial Pacific. When those sea surface temperatures become warmer than usual, and the right atmospheric signals are in place, El Niño has come to town, potentially leading to knock-on weather effects, a bit like tipping over the first domino in a long row. 

While ENSO is a useful clue for determining how winter may look, it does not provide guarantees. Instead, it tilts the odds in one direction. Historically, El Niño has a habit of shifting the Pacific jet southward, setting the stage for a procession of more-regular precipitation—and hopefully more snow, if the freezing levels cooperate—across the southern U.S.

The CPC’s long-range seasonal outlooks for next winter, indeed, show that pattern, with warmer and in some cases drier conditions up north—a broad assessment of the winter that mirrors, mostly, forecasts from ski forecaster Chris Tomer and OpenSnow. 

El Niño strength hinges on how much warmer than normal the ocean surface temperatures get. A stronger El Niño, however, does not necessarily make for more intense impacts, according to Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist with the CPC, per SFGate. 

Instead, she wrote to SFGate, “We can say that more rainfall, particularly weather events that repeat or recur over the course of a season, can be made more likely by El Niño.”

The irregular strength of this El Niño may mean curveballs are coming, too, according to some meteorologists who focus on skiing. 

OpenSnow forecaster Alan Smith, who broke down OpenSnow’s 2026-27 outlook, noted at the end of his video that “with this being a potentially record-setting El Niño, that could also lead to some surprises.”

Related: How to Not Die in the Mountains, According to a former TGR Lead Guide