Forecasters' New Outlook Provides Early Glimpse at El Niño Ski Season

As buzz builds around the so-called “Super” El Niño, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is continuing to release seasonal outlooks that provide a broad glimpse at what the upcoming ski season might look like.

The latest, published on Thursday, covers the next year, broken up into three-month chapters. 

What does it say about the snow conditions? Not everything. But the CPC’s assessment hews close to the traditional wisdom surrounding El Niño—the southern half of the country is set for greater odds of above-normal precipitation. The north, meanwhile, is slotted in for toastier temperatures and, in some places, less precipitation.

Here’s a look at the December through February phase.

How Do You Read These Maps?

One common misconception about the CPC’s outlooks is that the darker the color is, the higher the amount of precipitation or the greater the temperatures forecasted. That’s not quite right.

Instead, darker colors simply indicate that the odds of a departure from average are higher. They don’t indicate how far this departure from average is. 

Will the Sierra Nevada get an extra 15 feet of snow this winter? The map doesn’t say, only showing that more than usual precipitation (not necessarily snow) is the most likely outcome. In white areas, the odds of above normal, near normal, or below normal are equal. This blog post provides a great breakdown.

What About El Niño?

For the uninitiated, El Niño is a climate pattern revolving around a patch of ocean in the Pacific. When its sea surface temperatures go above normal, and the right atmospheric signals are in place, El Niño’s running the show. The opposite is true for El Niño’s sibling, La Niña, which brings a drop in sea surface temperatures.

Both have documented impacts on temperature and precipitation patterns—they’re kind of like throwing a wrench into the usual atmospheric machinery or pushing over the first of many dominoes. For El Niño in North America, the most notable impact for skiers is a southward shift of the jet stream, sometimes setting the stage for more storms and precipitation across the southern tier of the U.S.

Now, El Niño is expected to be big this time, perhaps on a historic level. The CPC put the odds of that outcome at almost 70% in its latest update about El NiñoNiño and La Niña cycle.

That doesn’t guarantee the expected El NiñoNiño impacts—like the juiced-up southern jet—but it can make them more likely, the CPC added.

What Do Other Forecasters Say?

OpenSnow, a forecasting group favored by skiers, offered a similar take to the CPC, with a bullseye of more-than-normal snow over the Southwest, including California, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. 

Before you get too far over your skis, though, consider the closing message of OpenSnow meteorologist Alan Smith, who presented the forecast in a YouTube video. He noted that long-range forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt and said that given the potentially historic nature of El Niño’s current showing, there could be some unanticipated surprises.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist for the University of California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources group, also cautioned against “sensational headlines” that suggested California was headed for its wettest winter ever. 

“That’s something that we just can’t know,” he said in a recent video. 

At the same time, Swain said, “The odds of having a very wet winter or perhaps even a record wet winter in some places is much higher than it would be at baseline.”

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