The Farmers' Almanac Reveals California's Winter Forecast: "Rain" and "Mixed" Precipitation

Skiers, weather fanatics, snow fans—gather round; the Farmers’ Almanac forecast for the 2026-27 winter season has arrived, and with it comes a long-range look at what the coming months could bring.

As for California, it’s looking to involve “rain or mixed precipitation” with “mild” temperatures, according to the Almanac. 

The latest forecast added that the southern tier of the Golden State is in for “wet and stormy” weather.

“An active storm track may extend from Southern California and the Desert Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast,” the Almanac wrote. “These areas should watch for frequent storm systems, muddy fields, and occasional surges of cold air.”

The Almanac also acknowledged that El Niño is “expected to remain an important influence through the heart of the season.”

The Farmers’ Almanac publishes more detailed forecasts in its upcoming print booklet, which will be available in late August.

What Do Other Forecasts Say?

For California, El Niño is the star of the show.

The climate phenomenon, which occurs when sea surface temperatures in a specific part of the Pacific Ocean warm, influences weather across North America and around the world. That influence has an observed pattern and, for California, it tilts the odds in favor of wetter-than-normal precipitation across the southern third of the state, according to the Department of Conservation.

While El Niño has already arrived, NOAA pegged the chances of it becoming “very strong” by the October through December period just above 80%.

Against that backdrop, forecasts beyond the Almanac are suggesting that California could get drenched.

Recent reporting from The Chronicle cited a “top climate model” which showed that between December and February, the California coast had a more than 90% chance of above-normal precipitation. However, the newspaper did report that tropical air could push freezing levels high.

Or, in skiers’ parlance, that might mean rain in the mountains.

Meanwhile, Direct Weather, a popular stop for weather enthusiasts on YouTube, offered a somewhat similar take, with the area of highest certainty for above-normal snowfall falling in California’s Sierra Nevada—home to ski resorts like Palisades Tahoe, Mammoth Mountain, and Heavenly. 

It’s worth noting that every El Niño, even strong ones, is unique. 

The strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98 saw well above-normal precipitation across California. 

But during the recent strong event of 2015-16, the northern two-thirds of the state saw near-normal precipitation and the southern third of the state saw below-normal precipitation, according to the Department of Conservation.

Related: What a Skier Leaves Behind