El Niño Is Strengthening, but It Hasn't Hit Quite Yet
El Niño is the talk of the town this Fall, and according to the latest update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it’s getting stronger.
“El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79% chance),” reads the latest ENSO update published on November 12, 2026.
The likelihood of a historic El Niño remains plausible, too: “Chances for a historic event exceeding previous El Niños dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value) are now ~60% for the October-December and November-January periods, remaining at better than even odds,” writes NOAA.
So, what does all of this mean for skiers? Well, according to NOAA, nothing is guaranteed, but the odds of a “traditional” El Niño pattern taking shape this winter remain high.
El Niño typically brings wetter and colder weather to the southern half of the United States, and drier and warmer weather to the northern half.
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NOAA
NOAA’s latest Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for January, February, and March 2027 (as seen above) supports a traditional El Niño pattern.
This forecast bodes well for skiers in California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah, as shown by the green shades on the map above, but could mean less snow and warmer weather for skiers in northern Idaho, Montana, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Keep reading for a breakdown of the three-month seasonal temperature outlook.
NOAA’s latest Seasonal Temperature Outlook for January, February, and March of 2027 also supports a strong El Niño forecast.
With a southerly jet stream, the odds of warmer temperatures in northerly states such as Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine remain high.
What’s odd, at least based on a typical El Niño, is that NOAA isn’t forecasting below-normal temperatures for the southern half of the country at this time. Rather, the agency is forecasting “Equal Chances” for above- or below-average temperatures this winter.
This specific part of the forecast is what skiers should pay attention to. More precipitation is usually a good thing for ski resorts, but if the temperatures are too warm to produce snow, it could spell disaster. Ski resorts with low base elevations will feel the brunt of these warm storms the most, but areas with high alpine terrain should be in the clear.
Stick with us here at POWDER for more El Niño updates, snow forecasts, and more.
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