New El Niño Weather Map Shows Encouraging Sign for PNW Snow Lovers

An updated U.S. snowfall forecast from the meteorology YouTube channel Direct Weather has unexpected and perhaps good news for Pacific Northwest skiers as a winter season dominated by “super” El Niño talk begins to unfold.

Previously, Direct Weather shared a forecast that roughly mirrored the historical El Niño pattern: more moisture in the southern U.S. and warmer temperatures up north. The channel’s expected snowfall map took that into account, with the winning states, snowfall-wise, stretching from California to the Southeast. The opposite was true of Washington and Oregon.

This aligned with conventional El Niño wisdom: fall and winter are usually warmer and drier during El Niño events in the Pacific Northwest, according to the USDA.

Looking at how the weather’s unfolded this fall, though, Direct Weather is increasingly confident that the Pacific Northwest will see normal or above-normal precipitation. The Climate Prediction Center recently published an atmospheric river notice for the region, with a “moderate risk” of heavy precipitation starting November 12.

The new forecast map, according to Direct Weather, reflects ongoing weather patterns. Now, it shows the Pacific Northwest with higher odds of above-average snowfall. It’s not quite the pink bullseye (i.e., even better odds of powder) that shows up over California’s Sierra Nevada. Still, it’s an improvement over Direct Weather’s last forecast for Washington skiers.

It’s a sign of hope for a region that, among skiers, tends to get less attention during an El Niño winter. In another encouraging tidbit, an article from the University of Washington published in August did note that very strong El Niños like this ongoing one have coincided with near-normal snow in the region. However, the article added that, given the irregularity of very strong El Niños, it was unclear whether this was an actual pattern or just a small sample size.

However it all shakes out, here’s one helpful thing to keep in mind: seasonal forecasting is a complicated business, and no long-range forecast can capture all the nuances of individual seasons and storms. It’s going to snow in the Pacific Northwest no matter what, and even during thinner seasons, there are often storms that still deliver.

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