New Map Forecasts How El Niño Will Affect Drought Conditions In Winter 26/27 From Coast to Coast

November is around the corner, and nearly every weather-conscious American has one question on their mind: how will El Niño affect the winter of 2026-27?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently revealed the likelihood of a “strong” El Niño this winter: “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance),” writes NOAA. “Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.”

El Niño typically brings wetter and colder weather to the Southwest, and drier and warmer weather to the Northwest. There are exceptions, as many have noted recently, but the odds are stacked for this outcome based on previous strong El Niños.

NOAA has released a Seasonal Drought Outlook map for October 2026-January 2027 to further illustrate how El Niño is expected to unfold.

The 2026/27 print issue of POWDER Magazine is here. Click here to have a copy shipped to your front door. Copies can also be found on newsstands at major retailers like Barnes & Noble, Target, Walmart, and more.

NOAA provided the following bullet points along with the map above:

• “Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast.”
• “Elevated odds for drier-than-average conditions for Hawaii, much of Alaska, the northern Mountain West, some areas in the Great Lakes, and the western Pacific Islands.”
• “Areas in the Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley, and Puerto Rico / U.S. Virgin Islands have equal chances of below-average, near-average, or above-average seasonal total precipitation amounts.”
• “Drought conditions are forecast to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast.”
• “Drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies, along with northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.”

The warning about drier conditions in the northern Rockies and the Great Lakes should draw concern for skiers in these regions, but fear not, friends, nothing is guaranteed at this point in the season.

Keep an eye on the forecasts, don’t overreact, and plan accordingly. It will snow in regions that NOAA is forecasting will be dry, and there will be periods of dry weather in the regions that are expected to see above-average precipitation. Mother Nature will have the final say, and no AI model, weather expert, or otherwise knows exactly what will happen.

It’s all part of the game, and we’re here to help you sort through it. Tap or click below to read my thoughts on the overhyped El Niño, and check back in with us weekly for updated forecasts, opening day news, and more.

The 2026/27 print issue of POWDER Magazine is here. Click here to have a copy shipped to your front door. Copies can also be found on newsstands at major retailers like Barnes & Noble, Target, Walmart, and more.

Related: Skiers Beware, The El Niño Hype Train Has Officially Left The Station