New NOAA Forecast Provides Early Look at El Niño Winter
Each month, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues a series of seasonal outlooks that provide a broad look at the temperature and precipitation expected in the months to come.
Normally, these outlooks interest skiers. That’s even more true this year with a very strong El Niño set to shake up the season.
The latest update doesn’t differ dramatically from the last and still aligns with the El Niño pattern: a band of moisture stretching through the Southwest.
As NOAA put it in a news release, El Niño “looms large” over this latest prediction.
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service.
That could mean more rain and snow in some places, with mixed benefits and drawbacks. On the upside, more snow is great for skiers and the ski industry, and greater precipitation is slated to improve or remove drought conditions, depending on the state.
Yet, “too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides,” added Graham. “Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”
Seasonal Outlooks
NOAA/CPC
NOAA/CPC
Too Warm for Snow?
In California, in particular, the outlook appears promising for skiers. But it would be best not to count the inches of snow before they arrive.
Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate and weather scientist, addressed the California snow question in a recent post on his blog Weather West.
While Swain wrote that there’s a strong signal for above-average precipitation in the Sierra Nevada, there’s also a strong warm signal, especially during the first half of winter.
He wrote that this is a “tricky forecast,” but noted that “my general sense is that this year will be one with very strong elevational dependence.”
“Locations at relatively high elevations (7-8k feet and above) will likely do quite well and see a lot of ‘Sierra Cement,’ but the far more extensive region at somewhat lower elevations may end up quite wet but too warm on average to maintain a significant snowpack,” he added.
For context, many of Lake Tahoe’s best-known resorts have a base elevation below 7,000 feet. Mt. Rose-Ski Tahoe has the region’s highest base elevation at 8,260 feet. Further south, Mammoth Mountain’s main base sits at about 9,000 feet.
While the “Southern Sierra could see a huge snowpack this winter,” Swain wrote, it may come down to how high up the mountain you go around Tahoe.
“It might be a fairly rainy winter at Lake level, but quite a snowy one indeed at the top of the highest ski resort chairlifts,” he wrote.
In other words: waterproof outerwear may be a good investment.
Overall, previous outlooks shared by OpenSnow and Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll pegged the broader Southwest as the best bet for above-average snowfall. While parts of the Northeast are, indeed, leaning towards more than usual precipitation by the CPC, they also have higher odds of above-average temperatures, which could make for fickle freezing levels.
Both OpenSnow and Noll called for higher odds of below-average snow across the northern third of the U.S. Still, before you despair, remember: all of these predictions are based on probabilities, not guarantees. We won’t truly know the story of the 2026-27 season until it’s over.
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