El Niño Is Strengthening, According to Latest Report, and Chances for a "Historic" Event Are High

The talk of the town this Fall, well, mountain towns, anyway, has been El Niño, but not just any El Niño.

No, this winter will be influenced by a “strong”, “super”, “mega-” or whatever adjective you want to use, El Niño, that meteorologists and climate scientists are warning could wreak havoc in the American southwest and abroad.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has declared an ongoing State of Emergency ahead of the weather phenomenon, and resorts are marketing ski passes with phrases like, “Super El Niño is coming, get your pass NOW.” Click here to read my thoughts on the ordeal.

In reality, a strong El Niño doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does stack the deck in favor of a wet and snowy winter in the southwest, and a dry and warm winter in the northwest.

We’ll have to wait to see how that plays out, but in the meantime, we have an update from the National Weather Service (NWS) to share. In its monthly EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION, updated today, October 8, 2026, NWS states that El Niño is strengthening, and it could be a historic occurrence.

“El Niño continues to strengthen with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance),” writes NWS. “Chances remain high for a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.”

The NWS continues: “the chance (for El Niño) is 54% for September-November, 83% for October-December, and 70% for November-January. With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed. In summary, El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).”

The NWS’s three-month weather outlooks for December 2026-February 2027 support a strong El Niño. The maps, included below, show a strong chance of above-average precipitation in the southwest and a strong chance of above-average temperatures in the northwest.

This could be defined as a “classic” El Niño cycle, but again, the NWS states that while some outcomes are more likely than others, nothing is guaranteed.

While El Niño hasn’t officially been declared, many on the West Coast of the United States are feeling the impacts of warming temperatures in the Pacific Ocean already.

Hurricane Rachel, one of many Pacific Ocean tropical storms that have formed this year, is currently spinning off the coast of California and is expected to make landfall later this week. It is expected to combine with cold air dropping in from Canada and create the season’s first major snowstorm for the mountains in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and parts of Utah, Colorado, and California.

Then there’s the Chile of it all, where ski resorts like Ski Portillo and Valle Nevado have recorded their snowiest seasons in more than 50 years. The latter recently extended its ski season through November 8, 2026, an unprecedented occurrence that could only happen with loads and loads of snow.

What exactly does all of this mean for winter 26/27 here in the United States? Well, as mentioned before, nothing is guaranteed, and that’s the beauty of it all.

Stay tuned for more El Niño coverage leading up to and throughout the ski season here at POWDER. We’ve got you covered, and remember, nobody knows what exactly will happen, no matter how confident they seem.

Wax the skis, wash your base layers, and get ready. Winter is coming!

Related: The Best Gear for an El Niño Ski Season