California Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Potentially Historic El Niño Winter
California is taking the developing El Niño seriously months before the heart of ski season arrives.
Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a statewide state of emergency Monday as California prepares for an El Niño that federal forecasters say has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong this fall and winter.
For skiers and snowboarders, one part of the declaration is particularly interesting.
California is already ordering snow-removal equipment, traffic-control equipment and road-closure resources to be staged along highways considered most vulnerable to winter storms. State officials are preparing for the possibility of repeated heavy rain, strong winds, mountain snow, flooding, landslides and debris flows. The full emergency proclamation is available through the governor’s office.
It is a remarkable change in conversation after California’s mountains limped through one of their poorest snow years in recent memory.
Now the question for skiers is whether one of the strongest El Niño events on record could flip the script.
I'm declaring a state of emergency to mobilize state resources for a potentially historic El Niño winter in California.
With higher risks of heavy rain, flooding, and mudslides over the next several months, we're launching a whole-of-government effort to protect Californians. pic.twitter.com/nOcdVn8dwx
— Governor Gavin Newsom (@CAgovernor) September 21, 2026
California Is Preparing Before the Storms Arrive
The state of emergency does not mean California is currently experiencing an El Niño disaster.
It is a preparedness measure designed to give state agencies additional flexibility to stage equipment, purchase supplies and respond more quickly if severe storms develop.
Caltrans is specifically being directed to pre-position snow-removal, road-closure and traffic-control equipment along vulnerable highways. The state is also preparing flood-control supplies including pumps and sandbags, while the California National Guard can be used for search and rescue, logistics and engineering support if needed.
Those preparations have obvious implications for California’s major ski regions.
Interstate 80 and Highway 50 provide critical access to Tahoe resorts. Highway 88 serves Kirkwood. Highway 395 connects skiers with Mammoth Mountain and June Mountain. Smaller mountain highways provide access to resorts throughout the Sierra Nevada and Southern California.
Big storms can be great for skiing once the weather clears.
Getting to the mountain can be another matter entirely.
Multi-foot Sierra storms can trigger chain controls, highway closures, avalanche mitigation and temporary resort shutdowns. Wind can also keep upper-mountain lifts closed even while enormous amounts of snow are piling up.
California is preparing for that possibility well before winter begins.
NOAA Says This El Niño Could Reach Historic Strength
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño has continued strengthening rapidly.
In its Sept. 10 update, NOAA gave the event a greater than 90% chance of becoming “very strong” during fall and winter 2026-27. Forecasters also put the probability at 75% that El Niño reaches a level between October and December that would exceed previous events in NOAA’s record dating to 1950.
That does not mean California is guaranteed a historic snow season.
El Niño describes unusually warm ocean conditions across the equatorial Pacific that can alter atmospheric circulation and shift the winter storm track. Strong El Niño winters frequently push the Pacific storm track farther south, increasing the potential for storms across California and the southern United States.
NOAA’s newest seasonal outlook increasingly favors wetter-than-normal conditions across California as winter progresses. The agency says probabilities for above-normal precipitation rise across California during the heart of winter, with some coastal areas reaching a 50% to 60% probability.
That is encouraging for California skiers.
But precipitation and snowfall are not the same thing.
The Biggest Question Could Be Snow Levels
A wet winter can still be a complicated ski winter.
California’s ski areas span a huge range of elevations, and the temperature of each storm will determine whether incoming Pacific moisture falls as powder, heavy wet snow or rain.
High-elevation resorts such as Mammoth Mountain are generally better positioned to take advantage of warm storms than lower-elevation ski areas.
Tahoe can be particularly complicated.
A powerful atmospheric river could bury upper elevations while simultaneously bringing rain to lower portions of the mountain. Rain falling onto an existing snowpack can also accelerate melting, increase runoff and contribute to flooding concerns.
That is why “very strong El Niño” should not be translated directly into “very deep ski season.”
As Unofficial Networks explained in the recent 2026-27 winter weather forecast, California has some of the greatest snowfall upside in the West this winter, particularly at higher elevations. The primary concern is that warmer storms and fluctuating snow levels could determine how much of the additional precipitation actually becomes skiable snow.
NOAA’s historical analysis does provide some reason for optimism. During the strongest El Niño winters between 1950 and 2009, above-average snowfall was common across portions of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona, particularly at higher elevations.
Still, no two El Niño winters behave exactly alike.
Last Winter Was Almost the Opposite Problem
The possibility of an extremely active winter is especially striking after what happened in California just months ago.
On April 1, the California Department of Water Resources measured no snow at Phillips Station during its critical April survey.
Statewide snowpack had fallen to just 18% of average for the date after record March warmth and high-elevation rain rapidly erased what had already been a weak snowpack. The measurement at Phillips Station was the second lowest April reading in the survey’s history. California’s Department of Water Resources described the collapse as the result of a record-hot, dry March.
The consequences reached ski resorts.
Mt. Shasta Ski Park shut down in March and ultimately announced that it would not reopen for the remainder of the season.
Palisades Tahoe also moved its closing date forward by roughly a month as warm weather ate into an already limited snowpack.
Mammoth Mountain’s elevation and snowmaking helped it fare considerably better. The resort eventually remained open for 199 ski days, finally shutting down June 7.
The differences between those resorts are a good reminder of how much elevation and geography matter when talking about a statewide winter forecast.
California Has Seen What a Powerful El Niño Can Do
Skiers looking for the most tempting historical comparison will probably land on 1997-98.
That winter coincided with one of the strongest El Niño events on record.
Mammoth Mountain recorded 451.4 inches of snow during the 1997-98 season, according to the resort’s historical snowfall records. February alone delivered 159.3 inches. Mammoth maintains snowfall totals dating back decades on its historical snowfall page.
That does not make 451 inches a forecast for this winter.
There have been El Niño seasons that disappointed California skiers, and even wet winters can produce long dry periods between major storms.
Strength does matter, however.
NOAA has found that the relationship between El Niño and wet California winters becomes more pronounced during stronger events. Two of the strongest historical El Niño events, 1982-83 and 1997-98, both produced much-above-median precipitation across California.
That history helps explain why California officials are preparing now.
Ski Season Starts in November
The first major California ski resorts are currently scheduled to open less than two months from now.
As Unofficial Networks recently reported in its California opening-date roundup, Mammoth Mountain is targeting Nov. 13.
Heavenly and Northstar California are aiming for Nov. 20, Palisades Tahoe plans to open Nov. 25, Sugar Bowl is targeting Nov. 27 and Kirkwood plans to follow Dec. 4.
Every one of those dates remains dependent on weather and mountain conditions.
For now, El Niño is still a seasonal climate signal rather than a snowfall forecast for any individual mountain.
But the signal has become strong enough that California is no longer simply watching it.
The state is staging snowplows, preparing highways, stockpiling flood equipment and getting emergency resources into position before winter arrives.
After a spring that left California with just 18% of its normal April 1 snowpack, skiers could be looking at a very different weather problem this time around.
The question may not be whether moisture reaches California.
It may be how much of it falls as snow.
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