Meteorologist Matt Makens Issues 2026/2027 El Niño Snow Predictions
For the past 25 years Colorado based atmospheric scientist/meteorologist Matt Makens has made a career out of sharing his independent weather and climate intelligence with agriculture and weather-sensitive businesses and when he talks they listen. Makens recently issued his snow forecast for the upcoming 2026/2027 El Niño system and his insights are valuable not only to institutions like Texas A&M AgriLife, they could directly apply to how your winter plays out as a skier or snowboarder.
Matt Makens Winter 2026/2027 El Niño Breakdown:
A potentially historic El Niño is setting up a dramatically different winter snow pattern across the western United States, with the best odds for above-average snowfall concentrated across the Southwest and Southern Rockies.
According to the analysis in a recent seasonal outlook, the three strongest El Niño winters on record (1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16)show a remarkably consistent regional signal. Arizona’s high country has recorded above-normal snowfall in all three winters, while Denver has finished above normal during the peak of winter in two of the three and across the full cold season in all three.
The strongest and most consistent signal extends across the Southwest and Southern Rockies, where the historical composite favors above-average snowfall during strong El Niño winters. That includes areas around northern Arizona and Colorado, offering a potentially favorable setup for mountain snowpack and ski conditions.
The pattern flips farther north. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies have consistently leaned toward below-normal snowfall during strong El Niño winters. Seattle and Missoula, Montana, were below normal in all three of the historical events examined. The broader pattern also favors warmer and drier conditions across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
California presents a more complicated picture. While the Sierra Nevada can benefit from an active southern storm track during El Niño winters, snowfall ultimately depends on temperatures and elevation. A wetter storm pattern does not automatically translate into more snow at every location.
The biggest wildcard this winter is the potential strength of the El Niño itself. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has put the odds at 69% that the event becomes genuinely historic, potentially exceeding the strength of previous major El Niños.
El Niño 2026: Is This 1997, 2015, or Something New?
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