Ski Forecaster Reveals 2026-27 El Niño Winter Predictions

As the ski season draws nearer, another forecaster is providing a broad look at what we might see.

This time, it’s Chris Tomer, who’s known for his regular ski season snow forecasts and forecasting work for skiers and mountaineers.

Of course, the headline has to be El Niño, the climatic pattern that’s dominated the news and could reach historic strengths in a few months, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

“We’re a locomotive at this point,” said Tomer at the start of his video forecast. “We’ve got so much warm El Niño momentum moving forward. It’s pretty incredible.” 

Tap or click below to watch Tomer’s full forecast. Keep reading for more.

But what does that mean for skiers? Tomer said the defining feature for the upcoming winter will be the “supercharged southern jet.”

Historically, El Niño can set the stage for a stronger, more southerly jet stream during the winter. When this pattern unfolds, the fast-moving river of air steers storms and low-pressure systems from west to east across the southern third of the U.S.

“When you look at a supercharged southern jet, you tend to see a deluge of moisture in California, the Sierra, Southern Cal, New Mexico, Arizona,” Tomer continued.

For Tomer, in practice, that means better odds for above-average precipitation for much of the Southwest, covering ski resorts like Palisades Tahoe, Mammoth Mountain, Brian Head, Taos, and Arizona Snowbowl.

His prediction map, as of now, cuts Utah and Colorado in half—the northern stretch of both states is set for normal precipitation, with wetter weather in the south.

Tomer also pegged the northeast and southeast at above-average precipitation, while the northwest corner of Canada and the U.S. are slated for the opposite.

The biggest winners, per Tomer’s forecast, are the Tahoe area, Mammoth, and Brian Head, all of which he guessed could see 20 to 30% more winter snowfall. 

Don’t get ahead of your skis, though. Tomer, like almost every forecaster discussing this winter and El Niño, pumped the brakes. For one, he said the specific percentages above average he shared for ski resorts—as opposed to the broader maps he based his video around—are truly a “best guess.”

“I always hesitate to do these,” he said. “These could be way off.”

Tomer also said there could be issues with freezing levels—meaning storms bringing rain rather than snow—because warm air is being drawn into North America.

He said that there are a lot of caveats against this winter. 

“I’m very curious to see how this plays out,” Tomer said, again nodding to the intense El Niño activity. “I think there are so many things we cannot possibly foresee the outcomes at this point.”

Tomer’s forecast aligns, more or less, with OpenSnow’s prediction for the 2026-27 season, which also called for above-average snow across the Southwest.

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