El Niño Is "Likely" Next Winter, Here's What That Could Mean for Skiers

El Niño may be in the cards next winter, according to an update from the Climate Prediction Center shared earlier this month.

The agency said the climate phenomenon “is likely to emerge” between June and August 2026—with a 62% chance—and persist through at least the end of 2026.

What does that mean for skiers, though? Keep reading to find out.

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El Niño Basics

El Niño is one end of the three-point El Niño/Southern Oscillation spectrum, closely watched by skiers and forecasters. 

Alongside La Niña, its counterpart, El Niño, can impact how a given winter shakes out. In the middle, there is ENSO neutral, a period when neither La Niña nor El Niño is in effect.

An El Niño happens when the water surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms. That tends to make the jet stream travel south. The opposite is true when La Niña comes to town.

Speaking generally, a southern jet means—you guessed it—more snow and moisture for the southern half of the U.S., including mountain ranges like California’s Sierra Nevada, and parts of states like Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. Much of the Northeast leans towards below-average snowfall during El Niño.

Meanwhile, the northern half of the U.S.—think Washington, Idaho, and Montana—also sees less snow when the pattern pans out.

Guaranteed Powder Days?

Whatever you do, don’t get ahead of your skis.

“El Niño nudges the odds in favor of certain climate outcomes, but never ensures them,” wrote Michelle L’Heureux, in a blog post for NOAA. 

Here, the strength of El Niño matters. The stronger they are, the higher the chances of the expected pattern occurring—in this case, that southern snow band (and lack of snow up north). By strength, we mean how much warmer those sea surface temperatures get.

Here’s what the CPC has to say about the strength of the possible El Niño.

“If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be ‘strong’ during October-December 2026,” the agency wrote.

Another wrinkle: we’re now in a period forecasters call the “spring predictability barrier,” making it harder to tell ENSO’s future. 

As the World Meteorological Organization put it in a press release earlier this month, “Predictions issued at this time of year are typically less reliable due to the so-called boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-known limitation affecting ENSO outlook skill.”

All of this ENSO business also takes place against the backdrop of climate change.

Across most of the U.S. and North America, snowfall has trended downward over the decades. There are exceptions, though. Alaska and some other northern latitudes have seen an increase. 

With warmer weather, the atmosphere can hold more moisture. And if it stays cold enough, that extra moisture can fall as snow. But in areas where the freezing level is an issue, moisture can instead arrive as rain, cutting back on snow totals.

Stay tuned for more updates about the impending El Niño.

Related: Mikaela Shiffrin Thinks This Past Season Was Her “Greatest” Yet