The Imperfect Storm—Why Western Ski Resorts Are Dry as a Bone

Walk into almost any ski resort base area from the Sierra Nevada to the central Rockies right now and the story feels the same— plenty of frost on the cars, a few white ribbons of machine-made snow, and a whole lot of brown in the mid-elevations.

Colorado’s statewide snow water equivalent is currently in the neighborhood of only one‑fifth of median during the second week of November, a level that tracks with what skiers have seen on the ground.

This slow start is not a mystery if you look at the atmosphere. In October, the large‑scale pattern across the North Pacific and North America locked into a strongly positive phase of the Pacific–North American teleconnection.

In positive PNA, a persistent ridge tends to anchor near the West Coast while a compensating trough digs over the central and eastern United States. See below.

That configuration deflects early‑season storms north into British Columbia and the northern tier, suppresses precipitation in much of the interior West, and keeps freezing levels elevated on the storms that do sneak through.

October’s PNA index was emphatically positive, a value of +1.42, which fits the observed warmth and dryness that carried into early November, and the impressively cold and snowy start that skiers in the Northeast have enjoyed. Once the ridge is established, it takes time and a fair amount of upstream forcing to dislodge it.

The background state of the tropical Pacific has also tilted the table.

Weak La Niña years (which we’re in right now) often favor a storm track aimed at the Pacific Northwest while the Southwest and parts of the interior West see fewer and later hits. That footprint is not a guarantee, especially when the signal is weak, but it does nudge the early season toward unevenness.

In summary—better odds for snow and cold temps up north, slower going to the south and inland.

Layered on top is an unusually warm North Pacific. A massive marine heatwave has sprawled from the Gulf of Alaska toward the California coast since spring, covering millions of square kilometers this fall. See below.

Warm water changes the air–sea temperature contrast and can support stubborn ridging near the West Coast. It also loads the lower troposphere with extra moisture and warmth, so when storms arrive, freezing levels tend to ride high and mid‑mountain snow has a harder time sticking.

In short, even when the faucet briefly opens, the first inches fall as rain or wet snow at elevations that historically would have banked early season base.

None of this has been helped by the character of the intraseasonal tropics over the last month. The Madden–Julian Oscillation, the 30‑to-60‑day tropical pulse that can tip the jet stream into or out of West‑friendly modes, was weak and disorganized for much of October and early November.

Without a robust MJO push into the right phases, the West’s ridge had one less shove toward breaking, which kept the storm door squeaky and half‑shut instead of swinging wide.

The good news is that late starts are common in the modern West, and they are not destiny. Pattern diagnostics hint at a pivot as November closes. This week, the West began to feel more Pacific energy as the ridge relaxed enough to allow an atmospheric river into California, a precursor that often signals a more active, variable jet.

The medium‑range outlooks from the models highlight a significant pattern change heading into late November, with broader storm chances returning to the West.

If that shift aligns with a colder airmass, snow levels step down, and a couple of well‑timed shortwaves carve into the ridge, base building can then accelerate quickly, especially on north aspects and high‑elevation terrain.

Hopefully, the PNA trend easing back toward neutral rather than spiking positive again, the jet core extending cleanly into the West Coast rather than arcing north into British Columbia, and any sign of a stronger MJO pulse moving through phases that historically support a trough over the eastern Pacific will nudge the West back to normalcy over the coming weeks.

If those cards fall in place while La Niña remains weak, the pattern can flip from stingy to generous within a few cycles and the early‑season narrative changes in a hurry.

Keep an eye on Powderchasers forecasts in the coming days and weeks as we monitor the impending pattern change so you never miss a powder day.

Related: Winter Is Raging in Northern Vermont While Western Ski Resorts Lag Behind