"Historically Cold" Winter Forecasted for Most of Country

The winter Solstice is just over a month away and meteorologists are taking their last stabs at long range winter forecasts. Our friends at OpenSnow reminded us earlier this fall that most long range forecasts are not very accurate, because, well, they can’t be.

However, it’s still fun (depending on what the forecast says…) and vaguely informative to take a gander and see if you should be investing in new powder skis or carving skis for the upcoming season.

YouTube weather channel Direct Weather recently published their final long range winter forecast for the upcoming season. The forecast covers temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, snowfall chances, and an overall forecast. It’s all a pretty broad overview and again, not necessarily the most accurate given how far out the forecast is looking, but here’s what Direct Weather’s Winter 2025/26 outlook is calling for. You can watch the forecast video below and keep reading for more.

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According to Direct Weather’s forecast, California and parts of southern Oregon are in for a pretty warm winter. The further south you look, the more confidence there is that these places, as well as parts of southern Utah and New Mexico will also see above average temperatures.

In contrast, it’s looking like a large portion of the US starting as far west as the upper corner of Washington state and as far south as parts of Texas will have below average temperatures. These below normal temps increase in confidence east of the Rockies and even more so north of the gulf coast line.

The highest confidence in below-average temps lingers over the midwest and interior northeastern states, which are historically, pretty darn cold. See below.

When it comes to precipitation, Direct Weather’s forecast references the weak La Niña that’s been called for by most other long range forecasts as well. Generally, La Niña storms tend to impact the northwest before flowing towards the Rockies and leave California and parts of the southwest a little drier.

However, with the La Niña being a fairly weak signal, there’s still possibility that southwestern states could receive big storms. Also in line with the La Niña forecast, the northern half of the US could see more precipitation, especially in the northeast as those storms linger. Storms coming from Alberta could also benefit parts of the midwest significantly.

See below.

The snowfall forecast predicted by Direct Weather is fairly in-line with their general precipitation forecast. California and the southwestern US are seeing chances of below average snowfall, due to that weak La Niña pattern.

Possibilities of above average snowfall start as far south as the Oregon/California border, with increasing confidence into Northern Washington. That confidence increases significantly the further east and north we look.

See below.

As always, take these long-term forecasts with a grain of salt.

Currently, much of the western US is hurting for snow, with parts of Washington, Oregon, and California all showing a concerning lack of snow this close to scheduled ski resort openings. In contrast, the northeast has been getting plenty of early season snow and resorts there have been opening left and right. While current conditions reflect some of this long term forecast, the west coast is really pulling for those ‘above average’ precipitation anomalies and snowfall chances!

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