The National Weather Service Just Updated Its La Niña Forecast: Here’s What To Know
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center expects that the ongoing La Niña will remain weak and phase out by mid or late winter, according to the agency’s latest El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) discussion.
La Niña is a climate pattern closely watched by skiers in North America. It can affect where the snow stacks up across the continent, historically favoring one region over another for ski conditions.
The Climate Prediction Center’s latest update doesn’t mark a dramatic change in the expected La Niña outcome this winter.
Last month, the agency announced that La Niña had arrived but probably wouldn’t stick around for very long, forecasting a 55% chance that the ENSO would return to neutral between January and March. According to the Climate Prediction Center, those odds have now increased to 61%.
When ENSO enters its neutral phase, it’s harder for long-range forecasters to anticipate what a given winter will look like in advance.
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What Is a Weak La Niña?
Historically, La Niña is associated with more winter snow across the Northwest corner of the U.S. in states like Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. The Midwest and parts of the Northeast tend to see a bump, too. The opposite is true for Southern California and the Southwest.
But when La Niña is weak—as it is now—that pattern isn’t quite as reliable.
“A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts,” the Climate Prediction Center noted in its diagnostic discussion. The agency added, however, that “predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance.”
The Climate Prediction Center’s Early Season Forecast
The Climate Prediction Center publishes seasonal outlooks in three-month chunks that anticipate upcoming temperature and precipitation trends.
These outlooks are broad, forecasting the odds that temperature and precipitation depart from average during a time window across the U.S. They don’t, however, guess how far these departures from average will be.
For the next three months (November, December, and January), the Climate Prediction Center forecasts increased odds of above-average temperatures across the southern half of the U.S. The agency forecasts that above-average precipitation is the most likely outcome in the Northwest, mirroring the usual La Niña pattern, and perhaps pointing to more snow at ski resorts like Mt. Baker, Crystal Mountain, or Mt. Bachelor.
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