Winter 2025 – 2026 Forecast: Brutal & Severe Weather Ahead

As we’re gearing up for the 2025-2026 winter season, Direct Weather just released a long-range forecast, offering a glimpse into the weather patterns expected across the United States this fall and winter. Using sea surface temperatures and teleconnections like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the forecast highlights key trends that could shape snowfall and temperature patterns. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect based on Direct Weather’s September 29th, 2025, analysis.

Fall Weather Outlook: October and November 2025

The forecast begins with the short-term outlook for fall, focusing on October and November. October is expected to start with a negative Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, characterized by cooler temperatures in the western U.S. and a ridge bringing warmer conditions to the central and eastern states. However, a shift is anticipated by late October, with cooler-than-normal conditions spreading across the central and eastern U.S., potentially setting the stage for early-season snow in higher-elevation resorts.

November is likely to follow a similar pattern, with the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model suggesting slightly warmer-than-average temperatures overall but cooler pockets in the West. Precipitation during these months is expected to focus on the northern, central, and western states, which could mean early snow for resorts in the Rockies and Pacific Northwest, though the East may see less consistent snowfall potential early on.

Winter 2025-2026: Temperature and Snowfall Patterns

The winter forecast hinges on a weak La Niña or neutral ENSO, which Direct Weather notes is favorable for robust winter conditions, unlike stronger La Niña or El Niño patterns that can disrupt snowfall. This setup bodes well for ski areas, particularly in the central and eastern U.S., where colder air is expected to dominate.

• December 2025: A positive PNA pattern is forecast to take hold, funneling cold air into the central and eastern states. A ridge near coastal Canada and Hudson Bay could enhance arctic air intrusions, increasing snowfall potential for resorts in the Northeast, Midwest, and northern Rockies. Precipitation patterns suggest continued snow in the Northwest, aligning with above-average snowfall expectations for places like Washington and Montana.
• January 2026: The forecast indicates a slight thaw in some areas, with cooler temperatures persisting in the Deep South and Southeast. However, the northern tier of the U.S., including ski regions in New England and the Upper Midwest, should see continued cold, supporting consistent snowpack. Precipitation may be drier in the East, which could challenge snow accumulation in lower-elevation resorts.
• February 2026: Cold air is expected to dominate the eastern U.S., with warmer conditions in the West. This could mean excellent late-season conditions for East Coast resorts like Stowe and Killington, while western resorts may rely on earlier snowpack. Precipitation is forecast to be wetter in the north-central and northeastern states, potentially delivering fresh powder to the Great Lakes and Northeast ski areas.
• March 2026: The forecast suggests a flip to warmer conditions in the eastern U.S., similar to last winter’s pattern, potentially signaling an early end to the ski season in the East. The West may see more variable conditions, with some models indicating drier weather.

What This Means for Skiers and Snowboarders

The weak La Niña and neutral ENSO conditions set the stage for a potentially strong ski season, particularly for the Northwest, Rockies, and Northeast. Skiers and snowboarders should keep an eye on late October for early snow in the West and prepare for a robust December across much of the U.S. While the East may face a warmer March, the core winter months promise ample opportunities for powder days.

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