Winter 2025 – 2026 Forecast: Pattern Matching Analysis Suggests Record Snowfall & Arctic Outbreaks
Long range forecasting, the process of predicting future weather events or conditions over an extended period, is often subject to change. But by looking at weather patterns through history and analyzing years with similar patterns, forecasters can at least come up with a best guess. That’s what internet meteorologist Ryan Hall, Y’all does when comparing winter 2025 – 2026 with the 2010 – 2011 winter.
The winter of 2010 to 2011 shares an 85% pattern matching similarity to what’s expected for the 2025/26 winter. The 2010/11 winter was an epic one, bringing record snowfall to many areas throughout the country. Other similar years include 2007/08 and 1998/99, all of which produced memorable winter weather outbreaks.
Ryan Hall Y’all Winter 2025 – 2026 Winter Forecast:
- Pacific Northwest (e.g., Seattle, Portland):
- Consistent cooler-than-normal temperatures with a 33-40% probability of below-average temps.
- Enhanced storm track leading to frequent atmospheric rivers.
- Cascades expected to see 20-40% above-normal snowpack, benefiting skiers and water supply.
- Northern Plains and Great Lakes (e.g., Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo):
- Frontline for Arctic invasions due to potential polar vortex disruptions.
- Primed for lake-effect snow with 15-20°C air-water temperature differences, leading to 20-40% above-normal snowfall.
- Frequent Alberta Clippers, each dropping 3-6 inches of snow.
- Southwest (e.g., Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles):
- Warmer-than-normal winter with a 33-50% probability of above-average temperatures.
- 40% below-normal precipitation, worsening drought conditions.
- High fire weather risk in Southern California due to persistent high-pressure ridge.
- Midwest and Ohio Valley (e.g., St. Louis, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus):
- Battleground for cold Arctic air meeting warm Gulf air, leading to volatile weather.
- 35-40% above-normal freezing rain potential, especially in northern Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri.
- Enhanced severe weather risk, including winter supercell thunderstorms and possible tornadoes in December/January.
- Northeast (e.g., Philadelphia, Boston, Maine):
- Exceptionally active winter with 6-9 significant nor’easters expected, especially in February/March.
- North Atlantic Oscillation shifting to negative, causing blocking patterns and intense coastal storms.
- Mild early winter but ending with significant storm activity.
- Southeast (e.g., Atlanta, Charlotte, Florida):
- Warmer-than-normal winter with temperatures 2-4°C above average.
- Precipitation 20-30% below normal, leading to a relatively calm season.
- Risk of severe weather, including potential tornado outbreaks, but generally unremarkable winter with occasional cold snaps.
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