New Snow Forecast Could Be Bad News for California Skiers

The latest winter and snowfall forecast from Direct Weather, a popular meteorology channel on YouTube, doesn’t look great for skiers in California.

The forecast, which breaks anticipated snowfall chances into colored swatches, placed all of California in a region covered in various shades of brown. The darker colors indicated below-average chances of snowfall. 

If the forecast pans out, that might mean fewer powder days than usual at ski resorts like Palisades Tahoe, Mammoth Mountain, and Bear Valley Mountain Resort, but as Direct Weather points out, anticipating winter weather far in advance is difficult. 

“Timing could disrupt this,” they said. “This is mostly just based on who has the better chances of snowfall throughout the season compared to normal, and who has the worst chances.”

Plus, if you don’t like Direct Weather’s forecast, you could also choose to believe another, although many are telling a similar story.

Tap or click below for Direct Weather’s full Snowfall Forecast for this upcoming winter. Keep reading for how his predictions compare with NOAA, The Farmer’s Almanac, and more.

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Keep reading for more long-range Winter 25/26 forecasts below.

Chris Tomer’s Winter 2025-26 Forecast

Chris Tomer, a Colorado-based meteorologist favored by skiers for his winter forecasts, paints a similar picture to Direct Weather, with some differences.

Taking the anticipated La Niña into account, Tomer forecasted a winter storm track that covered British Columbia, Washington, Idaho, northern Utah, and the northwest corner of Colorado. According to him, these are the ski resorts that could see above-average snowfall.

• Whistler Blackcomb, British Columbia
• Stevens Pass, Washington
• Alta, Utah
• Brundage, Idaho
• Steamboat, Colorado

Tomer’s California forecast is a bit less gloomy. The northern stretch of the state, including ski resorts around Lake Tahoe, is slated for average snowfall. But in the south, he expects below-average snowfall.

The National Weather Service’s Winter 2025-26 Forecast

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center publishes three-month seasonal outlooks in advance. Like other long-range forecasts, they’re non-specific, dealing in the likelihood of possible outcomes.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, southern California could, indeed, see below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures—a recipe that tends to produce less snow.

This roughly mirrors a standard La Niña pattern. When this climate pattern appears, states across the southern U.S., like New Mexico, Arizona, and the lower half of California, tend to see below-average snowfall. 

This pattern is impacted by how strong La Niña is. Typically, stronger La Niñas lead to more consistent effects.

As of its latest update, the Climate Prediction Center said there was a 71% chance La Niña would appear between October and December. Those odds decrease to 54% when winter starts in December. 

This fall, the Climate Prediction Center is anticipating a weak La Niña.

The Almanacs Winter 2025-26 Forecasts

And then, there’s the almanacs. These centuries-old publications are another mainstay on the winter forecast circuit. Notably, their projections for California’s winter differ (and the rest of the nation, for that matter). 

The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for “mild” and “dry” conditions across California. The Farmers’ Almanac, however, expects slightly different weather, anticipating that the Golden State will see “average temperatures” but be “wet.”

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